Transmission of Ebola Viruses: What We Know and What We Do Not Know

Michael T. Osterholm; Kristine A. Moore; Nicholas S. Kelley; Lisa M. Brosseau; Gary Wong; Frederick A. Murphy; Clarence J. Peters; James W. LeDuc; Phillip K. Russell; Michel Van Herp; Jimmy Kapetshi; Jean-Jacques T. Muyembe; Benoit Kebela Ilunga; James E. Strong; Allen Grolla; Anja Wolz; Brima Kargbo; David K. Kargbo; Pierre Formenty; David Avram Sanders; Gary P. Kobinger

doi:10.1128/mBio.00137-15

Opinion/Hypothesis

Transmission of Ebola Viruses: What We Know and What We Do Not Know

Michael T. Osterholm, Kristine A. Moore, Nicholas S. Kelley, Lisa M. Brosseau, Gary Wong, Frederick A. Murphy, Clarence J. Peters, James W. LeDuc, Phillip K. Russell, Michel Van Herp, Jimmy Kapetshi, Jean-Jacques T. Muyembe, Benoit Kebela Ilunga, James E. Strong, Allen Grolla, Anja Wolz, Brima Kargbo, David K. Kargbo, Pierre Formenty, David Avram Sanders, Gary P. Kobinger

Michael J. Imperiale, Editor

Michael T. Osterholm

aCenter for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

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Kristine A. Moore

aCenter for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

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Nicholas S. Kelley

aCenter for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

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Lisa M. Brosseau

bDivision of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Gary Wong

cNational Laboratory for Zoonotic Diseases and Special Pathogens, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada

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Frederick A. Murphy

dThe Galveston National Laboratory, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA

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Clarence J. Peters

dThe Galveston National Laboratory, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA

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James W. LeDuc

dThe Galveston National Laboratory, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA

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Phillip K. Russell

eSabin Vaccine Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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Michel Van Herp

fMedical Department Unit, Médecins sans Frontières, Brussels, Belgium

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Jimmy Kapetshi

gInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Jean-Jacques T. Muyembe

gInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Benoit Kebela Ilunga

hMinistry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

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James E. Strong

cNational Laboratory for Zoonotic Diseases and Special Pathogens, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada

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Allen Grolla

cNational Laboratory for Zoonotic Diseases and Special Pathogens, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada

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Anja Wolz

fMedical Department Unit, Médecins sans Frontières, Brussels, Belgium

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Brima Kargbo

iMinistry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone

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David K. Kargbo

iMinistry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone

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Pierre Formenty

jDepartment of Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

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David Avram Sanders

kDepartment of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana, USA

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Gary P. Kobinger

cNational Laboratory for Zoonotic Diseases and Special Pathogens, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, Canada

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Michael J. Imperiale

University of Michigan

Roles: Editor

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DOI: 10.1128/mBio.00137-15

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Table 1

Risk of illness among household contacts by history of direct physical contact with a primary case

Study and contact status	Development of EVD
Study and contact status	No. who became ill (% of total ill)	No. who were not ill (% of total not ill)	Total
Dowell et al. (19)
Direct contact	28 (100)	67 (46)	95
No direct contact	0 (0)	78 (54)	78
Total	28	145	173
Baron et al. (17)
Direct contact	27 (93)	59 (57)	86
No direct contact	2^a (7)	44 (43)	46
Total	29	103	132
Francesconi et al. (18)
Direct contact	26 (96)	47 (80)	73
No direct contact	1^b (4)	12 (20)	13
Total	27	59	86
Summation
Direct contact	81 (96)	173 (56)	254
No direct contact	3 (4)	134 (44)	137
Total	84	307	391

↵a Contact status unknown.
↵b The patient had probable fomite exposure, i.e., used a blanket that the primary case had used before death.

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Transmission of Ebola Viruses: What We Know and What We Do Not Know

mBio Feb 2015, 6 (2) e00137-15; DOI: 10.1128/mBio.00137-15

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